PROBABILITY MANAGEMENT INC (EIN 460572110) - Form 990 Financial Analysis & Trantor Score

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Financial Vulnerability Assessment (Tuckman-Chang)

4 risk indicators measuring financial stability and operational resilience

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Financial Trends

Organization Details

Formation Year

2012

Legal Domicile

Principal Officer

SAM SAVAGE

Phone

6505206255

Tax Period

2023-01-01 to 2023-12-31

PROBABILITY MANAGEMENT INC, founded in 2012, is a small nonprofit in the Employment sector that reported $191K in total revenue in fiscal year 2023.

Mission

PROBABILITY MANAGMENT'S MISSION IS TO ADVANCE UNAMBIGUOUS STANDARDS FOR COMMUNICATING AND MANAGING UNCERTAINTIES AS DATA. THE GOAL IS TO INCREASE TRANSPARENCY AND CONSISTENCY IN REPORTING AND CALCULATING WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN AREAS AS DIVERSE AS FINANCE, ENERGY, PHARMACEUTICALS, BANKING, THE ECONOMY, NATIONAL DEFENSE AND CLIMATE CHANGE.

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Trantor Score

Financial Health Score (300–850) · Liquidity · Solvency · Sustainability · Efficiency

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Liquidity (40%) • Solvency (30%) • Sustainability (20%) • Efficiency (10%)

Financial Overview (2023)

Revenue Breakdown

Contributions & Grants $77,445

Program Service Revenue $113,770

Investment Income $1

Other Revenue $0

TOTAL REVENUE $191,216

Expense Breakdown

Grants Paid $0

Salaries & Benefits $122,940

Fundraising Expenses $0

Program Expenses $181,871

Other Expenses $73,422

TOTAL EXPENSES $196,362

Year-over-Year Comparison

	2023	2022	Change
Revenue	$191,216	$198,305	0.0%
Expenses	$196,362	$245,753	-0.2%
Net Income	$-5,146	$-47,448	-0.9%

Key Indicators

✗ Grants to Organizations ✗ Grants to Individuals ✗ Lobbying ✗ Political Activity ✗ Foreign Activities ✗ Donor Advised Fund ✓ Schedule B Required

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Financial Health Indicators

Comprehensive financial analysis: Altman Z-Score, liquidity, solvency, sustainability, efficiency, and growth metrics

Financial Distress Indicator

Liquidity & Cash Position

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Altman Z-Score • Liquidity Ratios • Solvency Analysis • Growth Indicators • Efficiency Metrics

Governance

Voting Members

Independent Members

Employees

Volunteers

Governance Policies

✗ Conflict of Interest Policy

✗ Whistleblower Policy

✗ Document Retention Policy

Special Practices & Reported Activities

✗ Operated a School

✗ Operated a Hospital

✗ Provided First Class Travel

✗ Reported Conflict of Interest

✗ Reported Asset Diversion

✗ Excess Benefit Transaction

✗ Made Political Expenditures

✗ Engaged in Lobbying

✗ Operated Donor Advised Fund

✗ Maintained Art Collections

✗ Filed Form 720

Compensation of Officers, Directors & Key Employees

Total Officers

$24,167

Total Directors

$24,167

Key Employees

Highest Compensated

reported

Name	Title	Hours/Week	Role	Reportable Comp	Other Comp	Total
SAM SAVAGE	EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR	40.00	Officer Director	$24,167	$0	$24,167
MICHELLE HYNDMAN	ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR	0.00	Director	$0	$0	$0
DEBORAH GORDON	DIRECTOR	0.00	Officer Director	$0	$0	$0
JUNE KLEIN	CFO	0.00	Officer	$0	$0	$0

Note: Compensation data is self-reported by the organization on their Form 990. "Reportable Comp" includes salary, bonuses, and other reportable compensation from the organization and related organizations. "Other Comp" includes benefits, deferred compensation, and non-taxable benefits.

Historical Data

Year	Revenue	Expenses	Assets	Net Income
2024	No data	No data	No data	No data
2023	$191,216	$196,362	$11,811	$-5,146
2022	$198,305	$245,753	$16,957	$-47,448
2021	$261,593	$285,905	$64,405	$-24,312
2020	$268,448	$248,669	$88,717	$19,779
2019	$223,811	$221,763	$68,938	$2,048

PROBABILITY MANAGEMENT INC