FORECASTING RESEARCH INSTITUTE

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Financial Vulnerability Assessment (Tuckman-Chang)

4 risk indicators measuring financial stability and operational resilience

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Financial Trends

Organization Details

Formation Year

2022

Legal Domicile

Principal Officer

JOSHUA ROSENBERG

Phone

3024922485

Tax Period

2024-01-01 to 2024-12-31

FORECASTING RESEARCH INSTITUTE, founded in 2022, is a community nonprofit in the Public & Societal Benefit sector that reported $3.1M in total revenue in fiscal year 2024. Revenue surged 1219% from the prior year, signaling strong growth momentum. The organization ran a surplus of $805K, a strong 26% operating margin.

Mission

FORECASTING RESEARCH INSTITUTE'S MISSION IS TO ADVANCE THE SCIENCE OF FORECASTING FOR THE PUBLIC GOOD. WE DEVELOP AND TEST METHODS TO IMPROVE DECISION-MAKING THROUGH FORECASTING, FOCUSING IN PARTICULAR ON ASSISTING THOSE WHOSE DECISIONS ARE OF BROAD SOCIAL IMPORTANCE.

Program Service Accomplishments

Program 1

Expenses: $1,890,460 Revenue: $0

FRI DESIGNED AND RAN DOZENS OF SCIENTIFIC EXPERIMENTS AND EXPERT ELICITATION SURVEYS FOR FUTURE PUBLICATION AS ACADEMIC PAPERS AND TECHNICAL REPORTS. RESEARCH FOCUSES INCLUDE SURVEYS OF EXPERT...

FRI DESIGNED AND RAN DOZENS OF SCIENTIFIC EXPERIMENTS AND EXPERT ELICITATION SURVEYS FOR FUTURE PUBLICATION AS ACADEMIC PAPERS AND TECHNICAL REPORTS. RESEARCH FOCUSES INCLUDE SURVEYS OF EXPERT BELIEFS ABOUT NUCLEAR RISK AND RISKS FROM ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. FRI ALSO DESIGNED A NEW BENCHMARK OF AI PROGRESS, MEASURING THE ACCURACY OF AI SYSTEMS ON AN AUTOMATED FORECASTING TASK. IN ADDITION TO THIS RESEARCH, FRI INCREASED IN SIZE TO 8 FULL-TIME EMPLOYEES AND MORE THAN 20 ACADEMIC, SCIENTIFIC, AND PART-TIME COLLABORATORS.

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Trantor Score

Financial Health Score (300–850) · Liquidity · Solvency · Sustainability · Efficiency

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Liquidity (40%) • Solvency (30%) • Sustainability (20%) • Efficiency (10%)

Financial Overview (2024)

Revenue Breakdown

Contributions & Grants $3,014,850

Program Service Revenue $0

Investment Income $82,784

Other Revenue $1,680

TOTAL REVENUE $3,099,314

Expense Breakdown

Grants Paid $30,000

Salaries & Benefits $886,493

Fundraising Expenses $29,450

Program Expenses $1,890,460

Other Expenses $1,377,423

TOTAL EXPENSES $2,293,916

Year-over-Year Comparison

	2024	2023	Change
Revenue	$3,099,314	$235,026	+12.2%
Expenses	$2,293,916	$1,435,017	+0.6%
Net Income	$805,398	$-1,199,991	-1.7%

Key Indicators

✓ Grants to Organizations ✗ Grants to Individuals ✗ Lobbying ✗ Political Activity ✓ Foreign Activities ✗ Donor Advised Fund ✓ Schedule B Required

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Financial Health Indicators

Comprehensive financial analysis: Altman Z-Score, liquidity, solvency, sustainability, efficiency, and growth metrics

Financial Distress Indicator

Liquidity & Cash Position

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Altman Z-Score • Liquidity Ratios • Solvency Analysis • Growth Indicators • Efficiency Metrics

Governance

Voting Members

Independent Members

Employees

N/A

Volunteers

Governance Policies

✓ Conflict of Interest Policy

✓ Whistleblower Policy

✓ Document Retention Policy

Special Practices & Reported Activities

✗ Operated a School

✗ Operated a Hospital

✗ Provided First Class Travel

✗ Reported Conflict of Interest

✗ Reported Asset Diversion

✗ Excess Benefit Transaction

✗ Made Political Expenditures

✗ Engaged in Lobbying

✗ Operated Donor Advised Fund

✗ Maintained Art Collections

✗ Filed Form 720

Compensation of Officers, Directors & Key Employees

Total Officers

$252,685

Total Directors

$164,289

Key Employees

Highest Compensated

reported

Name	Title	Hours/Week	Role	Reportable Comp	Other Comp	Total
JOSHUA ROSENBERG	CEO & TREASURER	40.00	Officer Director	$158,362	$5,927	$164,289
PHILIP TETLOCK	PRESIDENT	30.00	Officer Director	$0	$0	$0
LYLE UNGAR	DIRECTOR	1.00	Director	$0	$0	$0
JENNIFER LERNER	DIRECTOR	1.00	Director	$0	$0	$0
EVA VIVALT	DIRECTOR	1.00	Director	$0	$0	$0
ASTRID SORFLATEN	SECRETARY	40.00	Officer	$85,774	$2,622	$88,396

Note: Compensation data is self-reported by the organization on their Form 990. "Reportable Comp" includes salary, bonuses, and other reportable compensation from the organization and related organizations. "Other Comp" includes benefits, deferred compensation, and non-taxable benefits.

Historical Data

Year	Revenue	Expenses	Assets	Net Income
2024	$3,099,314	$2,293,916	$5,071,589	$805,398
2023	$235,026	$1,435,017	$4,207,371	$-1,199,991
2022	$5,352,800	$320	$5,352,480	$5,352,480