PO BOX 104, FREMONT, CA, 94537
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Back to SearchThis research-based framework evaluates financial vulnerability by examining four critical risk factors: (1) Equity Deficiency - whether the organization has enough reserves to survive 3+ months without income, (2) Revenue Concentration - whether income is too dependent on one source, (3) Administrative Flexibility - whether admin costs are so low the organization can't cut them in a crisis, and (4) Operating Sustainability - whether they're running deficits. Each factor that falls outside the safe threshold is "flagged." The more flags, the higher the risk of financial distress.
📊 Fewer flags = Lower financial vulnerability and risk
Source: Tuckman & Chang (1991) framework; conservative thresholds validated against 2.08M+ IRS Form 990 filings (Feb 2026) — flags more orgs than strict quintile approach for early-warning detection
Academic framework for nonprofit financial sustainability (Tuckman & Chang, 1991)
This measures how concentrated or diversified the organization's revenue sources are. A score of 1.0 means all revenue comes from one source (maximum risk). Lower scores mean revenue is spread across multiple sources, making the organization more resilient if one source disappears. We analyze 9 revenue categories: government grants, private contributions, membership dues, fundraising events, federated campaigns, related organizations, program service revenue, investment income, and other revenue.
📊 Lower = More diversified revenue streams
Source: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index adapted for nonprofits (Tuckman-Chang)
About: The Tuckman-Chang framework identifies four key indicators of financial vulnerability. 0 flags = low risk, 1–2 = moderate risk, 3–4 = high risk. Validated across thousands of nonprofits since 1991.
BAY PHILHARMONIC is a 501(c)(3) with EIN 941638842, based in PO BOX 104, FREMONT, CA, 94537. Founded in 1964, the organization files IRS Form 990 and reported its most recent data for fiscal year 2022. In that period, it reported $389,279 in total revenue and $512,582 in total expenses, with net assets of $51,853. Its Trantor Score is 610 (Fair), reflecting its financial health based on liquidity, solvency, and operational efficiency.
TO BRING LIVE CLASSICAL MUSIC TO RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN ALAMEDA COUNTY AND NORTHERN SANTA CLARA COUNTY, AND ENRICH THE QUALITY OF LIFE IN THE COMMUNITIES IT SERVES.
Financial Health & Payment Capacity Assessment
Score based on: Liquidity (40%), Solvency (30%), Sustainability (20%), Efficiency (10%)
| 2022 | 2021 | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $389,279 | $447,524 | -13.0% |
| Expenses | $512,582 | $366,295 | +39.9% |
| Net Income | $-123,303 | $81,229 | -251.8% |
This is like a financial health report card that combines multiple factors (cash reserves, debt levels, profitability, and efficiency) into one score. A score above 2.6 means the organization is financially healthy. Between 1.1 and 2.6 is the "gray zone" where you should monitor closely. Below 1.1 signals serious financial trouble.
📊 Higher = Lower probability of financial distress
Source: Altman (1968), adapted for nonprofits
This measures whether the organization has enough liquid assets (cash and things that can quickly turn into cash) to pay its bills due within the next year. A ratio of 2.0 means they have $2 in current assets for every $1 they owe short-term - a healthy cushion.
📊 Higher is better - Ability to pay short-term obligations
This tells you how many months the organization could continue operating if all income suddenly stopped. It's like an emergency fund. Organizations with 6+ months can weather storms, while those with less than 3 months are vulnerable to cash flow problems.
📊 More is better - Operating runway available
Source: Nonprofits should maintain 3-6 months of operating expenses
Formula: Cash ÷ Total Assets
📊 Higher = More liquid assets
Formula: Current Assets - Current Liabilities
📊 Positive = Can cover short-term obligations
This tells you what percentage of the organization's assets are financed by debt (money owed to others). For example, 30% means that 30 cents of every dollar in assets is owed to creditors. Lower is better - nonprofits with less than 30% debt are considered low-risk.
📊 Lower is better - Less reliance on debt
Formula: Total Liabilities ÷ Net Assets
📊 Lower is better - Leverage ratio
This shows what percentage of the organization's income comes from selling services or products (like tuition, memberships, or event fees) rather than donations. A higher percentage means they're less dependent on the generosity of donors and have more stable, predictable revenue. Organizations above 50% are considered self-sustaining.
📊 Higher = Less dependent on donations
This shows what percentage of the organization's income comes from donations and grants. Organizations that rely heavily on donations (over 75%) are more vulnerable to economic downturns or changes in donor preferences. Organizations with less than 50% dependence have more diversified, stable revenue streams.
📊 Lower is better - More diversified revenue
This shows what percentage of total spending goes to administrative costs like salaries, office rent, and utilities. While donors prefer low overhead (10-20%), organizations that are too lean (under 10%) may lack the infrastructure needed to operate effectively or adapt during tough times.
📊 Target 10-20% - Balance between efficiency and resilience
⚠️ ⚠️ Two Ways to Look at Admin Costs
From an efficiency view, lower is better. But from a resilience view, very low admin (under 10%) means the organization runs so lean that it has no room to cut costs during a crisis. The sweet spot is 10-20%.
Source: Inspired by Tuckman & Chang (1991) framework; threshold 0.10 is a conservative sector standard (empirical P20 = 0.00 on 2.08M filings)
This measures how efficiently the organization uses its assets to generate revenue. A ratio of 1.0 means they generate $1 in revenue for every $1 in assets they own. Higher is better - organizations with ratios above 1.0 are getting good mileage out of their buildings, equipment, and investments.
📊 Higher = More efficient use of assets
The surplus margin shows whether the organization is making or losing money. It's the extra revenue (profit) after covering all costs, shown as a percentage of total revenue. A positive number means they're building reserves, while negative means they're spending more than they're bringing in.
📊 Positive is healthy, negative indicates deficit
| Name | Title | Hours/Week | Role | Reportable Comp | Other Comp | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SANDRA YOUNG | Treasurer | 1.00 |
Director
|
$0 | $0 | $0 |
| GREGORY GREEN | Trustee | 1.00 |
Director
|
$0 | $0 | $0 |
| LISA LORENZ | President | 2.00 |
Director
|
$0 | $0 | $0 |
| JUDY LAM | Trustee | 2.00 |
Director
|
$0 | $0 | $0 |
| THOMAS HANDLEY | Vice President | 1.00 |
Director
|
$0 | $0 | $0 |
| MARK GREEN | Trustee | 1.00 |
Officer
|
$0 | $0 | $0 |
| MERNA MORSE | Trustee | 1.00 |
Officer
|
$0 | $0 | $0 |
| BARBARA GORSUCH | Secretary | 1.00 |
Officer
|
$0 | $0 | $0 |
| Year | Revenue | Expenses | Assets | Net Income |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | No data | No data | No data | No data |
| 2023 | $389,279 | $512,582 | $51,611 | $-123,303 |
| 2022 | $447,524 | $366,295 | $185,132 | $81,229 |
| 2020 | $351,692 | $356,772 | $142,462 | $-5,080 |
| 2019 | $337,786 | $352,512 | $103,450 | $-14,726 |
| 2018 | $264,457 | $242,788 | $64,558 | $21,669 |
| 2017 | $208,084 | $206,517 | $77,034 | $1,567 |
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